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April 6, 2005 – Saratoga, CA – The threat of a recession in the
Integrated Circuit (IC) industry is becoming even more remote, stated
Advanced Forecasting, a
quantitative-based
semiconductor forecasting house. Its statement relies on a proprietary
quantitative model (The IC Recovery Index) that for the last few months
has continued to increase, meaning the industry is distancing itself
from a major recession.
Supporting this
information are recently published industry data that show shipments of
IC units ceased to decline for two months (January and February 2005)
following a six month decline from 9.1 billions/month to 8.4
billions/month. Currently they are hovering within 0.3 percentage
points above the equivalent period in 2004.
“The Recovery Index
is a planning tool that has accurately predicted each of the periods at
which the IC Industry enters a recession, reaches a bottom, and the
return to a normal rate of growth,” stated Rosa Luis, Director of
Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. “Current indications from
the index solidify our original forecast that the current slowdown is
mild and relatively short.”
Worldwide shipments
of ICs are in line with this assessment. They peaked in November 2004
at $16B per month, and in three months have slowly declined 4% to
$15.3B. This is a mild decline as compared to the first three months of
the 2001 recession during which IC shipments fell 11% from $16.1B to
$14.3B.
In addition,
Advanced Forecasting’s forecast for the semiconductor materials and
equipment-components segment shows that wafer sales and IC units will
both reach a bottom in their decline during the second quarter of 2005.
Because this forecast strongly correlates to over 75% of all product
lines analyzed by the forecasting firm, most companies can expect their
product line decline to halt sometime this quarter.
The Recovery Index,
a result of Advanced Forecasting’s quantitative model, is a coincidental
indicator that accurately estimates the timing of the minimum point of a
recession and the timing of the industry’s return to a normal growth
rate. The index objectively confirms the occurrence of a major change in
direction reassuring decision-makers of this event, and shortening their
delay in response to the change. To view an example of this leading
indicator and its historical accuracy, please visit
http://www.adv-forecast.com/ic_revenues_forecasts.htm.
Founded in 1987,
Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for
semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, and materials industries. Its
unique features are using purely quantitative input and never
retroactively modifying its forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the
industry’s most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more
than 400 companies worldwide.
Contact:
Rosa Luis
Director of
Marketing and Sales
Advanced Forecasting
rosal@adv-forecast.com
Phone:
1.408.725.2964
Toll Free:
1.888.658.3227
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