Saratoga, California – January 24, 2005 – The IC industry, currently in decline, may face another setback later this year, as seen by the same quantitative model that accurately predicted the 2001 recession.  Advanced Forecasting, a quantitative-based forecasting house for the semiconductor and related industries, warns that its forecast indicates a downward Turning Point in the Underlying Demand for IC Revenues for the second half of 2005.   

During his presentation at the US ISS 2005 conference in Half Moon Bay, CA, Dr. Moshe Handelsman, the firm’s founder, publicly showed, for the first time, his model’s indication of a downward shift in underlying demand for ICs. “However, the slowdown currently being experienced in the industry reduces the impact of this turning-point,” said Handelsman.  

“Actual IC shipments tend to converge with Underlying Demand, therefore we expect actual IC revenue to pick up slightly in the latter part of 1H-05 and then taper off in 2H-05, following the reduction in demand as indicated by our model, “ said Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. “The restraint and vigilance resulting from the experience of the 2001 recession have saved the industry from repeating a similar collapse today.” 

Advanced Forecasting predicts that the growth rate for 2005 over 2004 for IC Revenues, Semiconductor Wafer Processing Equipment, and Wafer Shipments will not be very different from zero. In January 2004, Advanced Forecasting predicted that IC Revenues would increase 33% to 35%, Total Semiconductor Equipment would grow 65% to 70%, and Wafer Sales would improve 22% to 26% over 2003. To date, based on the first eleven months of 2004, IC Revenues have increase 30.4%, Total Equipment is about 68%, and Wafer Sales has reached 26%.  

The methodology Advanced Forecasting uses to generate its forecast for Underlying Demand for semiconductor and related segments can be found by clicking on http://www.adv-forecast.com/quantative_model.htm. 

Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment and materials industries. Its unique features are using pure quantitative input and never retroactively modifying its forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the industry’s most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.

Contact:

Rosa Luis
Director of Marketing and Sales
Advanced Forecasting
rosal@adv-forecast.com
Phone: 1.408.725.2964

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